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J.K. Lund's avatar

I knew what this graph was before I opened it. Indeed, this graph is also featured at the opening of Pathways of Progress: https://www.lianeon.org/p/starthere

What is interesting, however, is that if we chart GDP doubling time, we can see a steady declining trend until about 1970. That is, GDP growth throughout human history kept getting faster and faster until that year. We are still growing, just no longer accelerating.

I have an essay examining this. Some surmise that perhaps the “singularity” was cancelled. My guess, however, is that GDP is becoming less useful as a measurement index as the economy dematerializes and progress becomes more intangible.

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Ed P's avatar

Great piece! Its a great reminder how good things are. But I’m also on board with your cautions, maybe a little more in the “past performance does not guarantee future results” camp

We are due for a radical change because there does not appear to be a way exponential growth can continue indefinitely. The planet has limits. And as far as I can tell, we are approaching those limits, headed back towards a type of Malthusian population dynamics. One telling statistic is that 90% of land mammal biomass is either human or human livestock

I’m guessing if you could zoom into that graph, that prior to the industrial revolution you’d see more linear GDP gains. Its only since humans unleashed the power of combustion that we’ve enjoyed unrestricted population growth and therefore exponential GDP growth. But it can’t last forever unless we somehow master space travel very quickly.

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